Summary of lecture on 30/8/09  by Roger N. Jones – Victoria University - Department of Business and Law organised by IFFA

“Climate change is an issue which affects environmental life support systems, and appropriate economic understanding will be vital in implementing management and mitigation policy”. – Roger N Jones.

In a recent public lecture organised By IFFA and given by ecologist Professor Roger N. Jones at Victoria University, it was outlined how it is imperative that we consider the current government’s economic approach to ecosystem management under climate change.

Jones explained that current economic modelling and theory is understood on an equilibrium basis. However in reality, economics, like natural systems, is dynamic. He emphasises that similar to ‘life support systems’ (including ecosystems), detrimental changes can be hard to identify and by the time they are evident, can be difficult to stop.  Therefore reforms in economic policy are needed which reflect the urgency and complexity of the situation.

Climate change has presented yet another complex variable into ecosystem management and while some organisations suggest that we try to prevent large scale ecosystem change in order to allow for natural adaptation, Jones points out that it is too late to follow this strategy. The rate of ecosystem change occurring at local levels is too rapid to be managed in a purely preventative manner. Instead, we must be more creative in our approach.  

Alterations occurring in natural ecosystems and identified responses to climate change include:

• Shifting of species along climatic gradients
• The response to and recovery from specific events (i.e. the Victorian Bushfires of 2009)
• in situ change
• system transformation.

There are also published reports indicating that flowering and migratory patterns for specific species are changing in response to climatic changes.

At this point in our understanding we can surmise that the ecological impact of climate change will see generalist species succeeding more than specialists. Those with high ability to adapt to changing environments, a high degree of genetic variability, short generation times, large reproductive capacity, and with a broad dispersal capability and geographic range, have a greater chance to succeed.

On the flip side, those species with specialist requirements, limited gene pools, low breeding rates, longer turnover to sexual maturity, and limited dispersal and geographic range will struggle to survive. This is an issue which will greatly affect biodiversity on a local, regional and global scale. Many indigenous plants and animals fall into the second category.

While climate change is a large issue requiring immediate attention for the preservation of biodiversity, urban sprawl is moving even faster. Species will need to migrate in order to survive climate change, however, their ability to move through wildlife corridors to refuge spaces is increasingly limited by urban sprawl and freeway construction. Jones used the example of the planned Mornington Peninsula freeway which has been given the green light by the Brumby Government. The freeway will go through one of the last refuge areas for the Southern Brown Bandicoot, and ultimately facilitates increased human habitation (by the tune of 1 million additional people) on the Mornington Peninsula.  Urban sprawl will impact on the ability for cooler climate species to migrate to more suitable habitat areas on the Peninsula.

The fact that peri-urban areas are under increasing fire threat also restricts possible habitat. Since 1997 there has been a statistically significant decrease in Victoria’s rainfall (by 10-15%) and a statistically significant step change in the increase in maximum daily temperature, of 0.6 deg C (almost 1 deg C in summer). The Victorian bushfires are a good example of the “unnatural” conditions our state is facing. According to the fire services, under climate change and a strong El Nino effect, this coming spring and summer may be even worse. These pressures emphasise the need for a deeper understanding of ecosystem response to change, including fire response.

It is astounding to discover that only 1% of the federal budget is currently allocated to care for the environment, and that farmers actually contribute an equal amount to the environment as the government does.  These are our life support systems and it would be wise for the Federal Government to consider environmental security as a keystone of national productivity and prosperity. Jones emphasised the need for treasury to really understand the value of ecosystems beyond their perceived monetary value, for while acknowledging this as a concept, treasuries actions have not reflected that they truly understand. Jones also gave consideration to the cultural value of this land which for so many millennia was under the careful and admirable stewardship of its Indigenous peoples.  

Finally, we as a society need to realise that there is a ‘cognitive dissidence’ associated with our philosophical attitude toward loving nature and wanting to live amongst it, and realising the environmental cost of doing so. Urban sprawl is furthered due to the housing market in inner city areas becoming financially off limits for many families.

All this information could lead to a rather depressing overview of the current situation, however, a more positive and useful outcome is to consider the policy, management and mitigation strategies that might focus government in the right direction.

Jones suggests that several strategies must be implemented to facilitate a rapid response to ecosystem change. These strategies include:

• Strengthen a holistic understanding of the intricate relationship between natural resources, biodiversity and catchment management and economics. (Impacts on these areas underpin the long term success of the economy)
• Geographically connecting catchment management authorities (CMA) with ecological vegetation classes (EVC) in order provide a clearer indication of regions under the highest level of threat, enabling efficient prioritisation.
• Shifting to a new approach of active, process based action on biodiversity conservation.
• Facilitating wide public discussion to agree on a new national vision for Australia’s biodiversity, the resources and institutions needed to implement it.
• Building innovative and flexible governance systems i.e.: polycentric governance involving research moderated action.
• Switching to multi-year, flexible funding arrangements, designed to deal with the needs of the areas identified as most in crisis. (On going, focused injections of funding into areas of high priority)
• Increased public awareness of the links between a healthy environment and the economic value it represents.
• Strengthening of relationships between universities and government, with an emphasis on statistical data being more present during the formation of policy.  
• Creation of a stimulus package for natural infrastructure.
• Creation of a State business plan for natural assets over the next few decades.
• Improvement of precision in environmental accounting.
• Allocation of more funding toward monitoring and data collection to support the understanding of ecological change process. Regular updating of databases of major indicators plus fore sighting and projections of indicators.
• Allocation of more funding for research on how to finance the environment on a national and global scale.
• If government won’t fund effective monitoring and data collection, then grass roots groups should be encouraged to collect data themselves.
• As a community, we should put more time into understanding the issues of climate change and put more pressure on government to act swiftly and intelligently based on peer reviewed data.

Whilst “Economics” and “Environment” have seemed to be long time rivals, Jones emphasises the dire need for a realisation of the symbiotic relationship they have with one another. Climate change will effect the global environment in many ways, but Victoria’s ecosystems are already under considerable pressure.

The Rudd government must make some serious headway with this issue, as the future generations of all species depend on how we manage things right now.  We have managed to stave off the impending “economic crisis” but will we recognise that it’s the “ecological crisis” that is most threatening to the long term habitation of our state?

Summary prepared by Sascha Andrusiak